What 126 Years of Data Teach Us About Investing — and About Portugal

The 2026 edition of the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook analyzes 126 years of returns across 35 markets. The data, compiled by Professors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Dr. Mike Staunton, offers timeless lessons for today's investors.

Highlights:

Stocks beat everything else. A dollar invested in US stocks in 1900 would be worth more than $124,000 today — compared to just $284 in bonds and $69 in treasury bills. This pattern is repeated across the 21 countries with continuous data. In the long run, taking risk is rewarded.

The world has changed.

The US now accounts for 62% of global market capitalization. In 1900, 80% of listed companies operated in sectors that no longer exist today. Technology and healthcare, virtually nonexistent a century ago, dominate today's markets.

Inflation silently destroys wealth.

Even at a modest rate of 2.9% per year, the purchasing power of the dollar has fallen 38-fold since 1900. Stocks and bonds yield more when inflation is low and economic growth is strong.

Gold is not the shield it appears to be.

Although it has increased fivefold in real terms since 1900, gold has had negative returns in almost half of the years with inflation above 3%. It is a long-term store of value, not a short-term hedge.

Geopolitics is more noise than signal.

There is no statistical relationship between geopolitical risk and future returns over a month or a year. The exceptions—world wars, the 1973 oil crisis—are rare, but devastating when they have a real economic impact.

Diversification is more difficult, but remains essential.

The concentration of the US market has reached a 100-year high. Even so, investing globally improves risk-adjusted returns in the vast majority of markets.

At Heed Capital, this evidence reinforces our conviction: combining analytical rigor with a global vision is the best way to protect and grow our clients' assets.

(Based on the public edition of the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026).